Mid-size tanker spot rates remain firm heading into the seasonally weaker part of the year.

VLCC spot rates have weakened in recent weeks due to a reduction in Middle East crude oil exports. In contrast, mid-size spot tanker rates have remained well supported by a number of factors including strong crude oil exports from key mid-size load regions, the continued diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope due to attacks in the Red Sea, and the start of exports from the TMX pipeline on the West Coast of Canada.

Looking ahead, we anticipate that spot tanker rates will strengthen into the winter months due to an increase in oil supply, with the OPEC+ group set to unwind 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts over the course of 12 months, starting in October 2024. We maintain our positive outlook over the medium-term as a combination of steady oil demand growth and low tanker fleet growth should ensure continued firm spot rates.

Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.