Geopolitical Instability Leads to Renewed Tanker Market Volatility in June

Spot tanker rates were supported by an increase in long-haul movements from the Atlantic to Pacific during March and April before softening through May and the early part of June as ton-mile demand started to ease back. However, conflict between Israel and Iran led to renewed spot rate volatility during the middle of June, though the boost proved to be relatively short lived as no damage was done to oil production or export infrastructure while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz saw minimal disruption.

Looking ahead to the rest of the year, an accelerated unwind of OPEC+ supply cuts and new oil production coming online in Latin America should provide support for tanker ton-mile demand, particularly as we head into the seasonally stronger fourth quarter.

The medium-term outlook remains uncertain as a slowdown in the global economy due to the impact of tariffs / trade barriers could lead to lower oil demand growth during 2026, while unpredictable geopolitical events will continue to have an influence on tanker market direction. However, a slowdown in the pace of new tanker orders since mid-2024, a lack of shipyard capacity until the second half of 2028, and a rapidly aging tanker fleet should lead to very manageable levels of tanker fleet growth over the next 2-3 years.

Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.