Tanker market fundamentals still positive, but geopolitical factors will have a large influence on spot rate direction in 2025.

The tanker market started 2025 on a soft note. However, fresh sanctions on ships used in the Russian and Iranian oil trade have led to renewed volatility in recent weeks, particularly in the large crude tanker sizes as China and India imported more crude oil from the Atlantic basin to compensate for lower Russian and Iranian supplies.

Looking ahead, oil market fundamentals appear supportive with a combination of rising oil demand, strong non-OPEC+ supply growth, and an increase in long-haul movements from West-to-East set so boost tonne-mile demand. Furthermore, we expect tanker fleet growth to remain relatively low over the next 2-3 years due to the combination of a modest orderbook, and aging tanker fleet, and constraints over available shipyard space.

However, it is geopolitical events which will likely have the biggest influence on the direction of the tanker market in 2025, including a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine, the impact of sanctions on the “dark” fleet, the potential return of tanker transits through the Red Sea, and the impact of US tariffs / economic policy on seaborne oil trade patterns. While it is difficult to predict the outcome of these events, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting trade patterns typically lead to increased tanker market volatility.

Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.