Another strong year for spot tanker rates in 2024 with a balanced market expected in 2025.

2024 has been another very good year for the spot tanker market with rates well above long-term average levels. However, rates have trended lower in the second half of the year, and the winter market has been below expectation so far as a weak VLCC sector has weighed on rates across the crude tanker space.  

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect that spot tanker rates will remain firm throughout the year as underlying tanker fundamentals remain supportive. Oil demand is set to grow to a new all-time high in 2025, and strong growth in non-OPEC+ oil supply should drive the long-haul movement of oil between the Atlantic and Pacific basins leading to higher tanker ton-mile demand. While the pace of newbuild deliveries is set to accelerate in 2025, the fleet is aging, and shipyards have good forward cover for the next three years. As such, we expect fleet growth to remain at manageable levels.

While underlying tanker supply and demand fundamentals continue to look positive, there are a number of geopolitical factors which could impact crude oil trade patterns and fleet utilization during 2025, depending on how they unfold.

Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.